More Than One Possible Outcome

The impact of market fluctuations on long-term asset growth is often underestimated.

Constant return assumptions produce a single projected path. While this can provide a rough orientation, it rarely reflects how markets actually behave.

Planaberry therefore uses Monte Carlo simulations to model a realistic range of possible outcomes. This makes it easier to understand how strong and weak market phases may affect your assets over time.

Chart showing possible range of outcomes for an exemplary investment portfolio.
Chart showing representative developments for an exemplary investment portfolio.

A Market Environment That Fits You

From this range of outcomes, Planaberry derives five representative market environments – from very cautious to very optimistic.

Depending on the selected environment, asset growth, returns and possible withdrawals may vary.

You decide which market environment you feel most comfortable with and want to apply to your asset.

The deterministic projection can always be selected as an alternative.

Monte Carlo Across Your Assets

Directly Simulated

Assets whose value may fluctuate over time.

Investment

Simulated After Reinvestment

Applies when payouts are invested into a market-based portfolio.

Insurance
Company Pension

Coming Soon

Monte Carlo simulations for these assets will be available soon.

Crypto
Real Estate
Valuables

Why This Matters

Because Markets Rarely Follow the Ideal Path

Your retirement outcome is not determined by the ideal scenario, but by how your assets perform under different market conditions.

Monte Carlo simulations help you understand:

  • the possible range in which your assets may develop
  • how market environments may influence returns and potential withdrawals

Frequently Asked
Questions

  • Not necessarily more accurate, but more realistic in dealing with uncertainty.

    A fixed return assumption produces only one possible outcome. In reality, markets fluctuate significantly over time.

    Monte Carlo simulations therefore model many possible market paths and show a range of potential outcomes.

    This helps you understand how sensitive your plan may be to good or bad market periods.

  • To realistically capture market uncertainty, Planaberry calculates 1,000 possible market paths based on your inputs.

    Each path represents one possible development of the markets over time. Together, these simulations create a wide range of potential outcomes. To make this range easier to understand, we display five representative market environments from different parts of the simulation.

    These market environments are not forecasts. They do not answer the question "What will happen?", but rather "What if the markets develop like this?".

    For finance enthusiasts: the market environments correspond to the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the simulation.

  • Many Monte Carlo simulations display a chance of success. However, this usually requires users to define a fixed withdrawal rate.

    In reality, many people do not yet know how much they want to withdraw each year in retirement, or this assumption may change over time.

    Planaberry therefore intentionally avoids a seemingly precise success metric and instead shows representative market environments and the withdrawals they may support.

  • No. The deterministic projection with fixed returns or growth remains available at all times and can be used as an alternative to the simulated market environments.

    Monte Carlo simulations simply extend this approach by modeling more realistic market paths and helping you account for market volatility.

  • Monte Carlo simulations are available to users on the PLUS and FUTURIST plans.

    In the BASIS plan, assets are modeled using a deterministic projection only – for example with a fixed return assumption for investments.